Life in Two Enclave Areas
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1971 | 1981 | 1991 | % change | |
Total Roman Catholics | 40188 | 37855 | 54658 | +36% |
Total Protestants | 15907 | 12125 | 10924 | -31% |
Total Presbyterian | 8134 | 5828 | 5463 | - |
Total Church of Ireland | 6800 | 5705 | 4873 | |
Total Methodists | 973 | 592 | 588 | |
Total "other"&"not stated" | 9119 | 13492 | 4921 | - |
Total population | 65214 | 63472 | 70503 | +8% |
An examination of the figures for the urban area of the city shows
a change in the ratio of Protestants to Catholics in the city,
a substantial decline in the overall total Protestant population
in the city as a whole.(See Table 1)
This trend is mirrored in similar trends in the city of Belfast,
where a similar exodus of the Protestant population to the North
Down and Ards area has been documented. It is likely that the
causes of such shifts are complex and composed of a number of
interacting factors. Nonetheless, the trend is one which gives
concern to social scientists, politicians and policy makers in
a range of fields. It raises questions about the desirability
of increased segregation and the kinds of balance we wish to achieve,
particularly in urban environments where the greatest amounts
of violence has been experienced. This raises the wider issue
of the role of planners in social engineering, which is beyond
the remit of this submission. The activities of planners and policy
makers has impacted, whether intentionally or unintentionally,
on factors such as the sectarian balance. Further, we know that
policy in certain fields such as housing, play a significant role
in shaping the sectarian geography of our cities and towns. We
submit that the Area Plan is an opportunity to begin to disentangle
some of these factors and explore the role planners can and should
play.
2. The second examination of the statistics was aimed at establishing
internal migration within the urban area. For this purpose,
an examination of the small area statistics using grid squares
was conducted. A patchwork of grid squares which approximated
the Waterside and Cityside areas was constructed,
and the total population figures, again broken down by religion,
were examined. Table 3 shows the Waterside figures, and
Table 4 shows the figures for the Cityside.
TABLE 2: WATERSIDE (1): TOTAL POPULATION BY RELIGION
1971-1991 | ||||
Total Roman Catholic | ||||
Total Protestant | ||||
Total Presbyterian | ||||
Total Church of Ireland | ||||
Total Methodist | ||||
Total Other, none & not stated | ||||
Total other | ||||
Total not stated | ||||
Total none | ||||
Total population present
on census night | ||||
Total population usually resident |
The Waterside Catholic population figures for 1981 as with other
figures for that year, (particularly for the Catholic population)
are not reliable. Nonetheless, there has been a small increase
in the Catholic population in the Waterside, from 7708
in 1971 to 8032 in 1991: an increase of 324. The
increase in the Waterside Protestant population is somewhat larger:
from 7849 in 1971 to 9935 in 1991: an increase of
1903.
An examination of the figures for the Cityside (Table 3) shows
that there has also been an increase in the Catholic population
in the Cityside, from 33951 in 1971 to 48233 in
1991, an increase of 14282. The Protestant population,
on the other hand, has decreased from 8459 in 1971 to 1407
in 1991, a decrease of 7052. This decrease of 7052
is not offset by the increase of 1903 in the Waterside
Protestant population. The overall trend in population movement
is of Protestant movement out of the city area completely.
TABLE 3: CITYSIDE(2): TOTAL POPULATION BY RELIGION
1971-1991 | ||||
Total Roman Catholics | ||||
Total Protestants | ||||
Total Presbyterian | ||||
Total Church of Ireland | ||||
Total Methodist | ||||
Total other, none & not stated | ||||
Other denominations total | ||||
Not stated total | ||||
Total none | ||||
Total persons present on
census night | ||||
Total persons |
Table 1 suggests that the decline in the Protestant population
for the city as a whole is 4983 over the twenty year period.
Tables 2 and 3, which use different land boundaries, suggest that
the overall decline in Protestant population in the Cityside of
7052 is somewhat offset by an increase in the Waterside
Protestant population of 1903, giving an overall decline
of 5149 for the city as a whole . It seems reasonable
to conclude, therefore, that the city population of Protestants
has declined by at least 5000 people.
However, this figure may be an underestimation. It has been argued
that the majority of those who respond "none" to the
religion question on the census are, in fact, Protestant. Bearing
this in mind, we should note-, according to Table 1 - an overall
decline in this category in the overall city population of 4198.
There has been an equivalent increase of 384 in the Waterside
"none, other and not stated"population in the twenty
year period, giving some credence to the view that these people
are, in fact, Protestant. A corresponding decline in the same
population in the Cityside (see Table 3) of 2896 would
tend to confirm this view. This means that the overall decrease
citywide in this category is 2512 people. Potentially,
therefore, the population loss of Protestants to the city is 5149
plus some of this number: a maximum potential loss of 7661,
although it is unlikely that all of the 2512 "none other
and not stated" category are Protestants.
What is evident from an examination of the Cityside and Waterside
figures is an internal shift of Protestants from the west to
the east banks of the city, in the context of an overall
decline in the Protestant population of the city of between five
to six and a half thousand people.
Some of these changes in population balance are not due to migration,
but to natural increases in the population. Migration occurs for
a variety of reasons, and sometimes a combination of several reasons:
upward mobility; acquisition of better housing; employment; decline
of the area due to vandalism, redevelopment, as well as fear,
intimidation and sectarian issues.
3.We looked at the Fountain and Gobnascale
as examples of enclave communities. We examined small area statistics
for two communities within the city.
3a. The geographic definition of the Fountain community
proved problematic, in that the community boundaries have contracted
with the decline in population. We used contemporary boundaries
as defined by current residents, and the figures here are the
nearest grid square data within those boundaries
1971 | 1981 | 1991 | % change 1971-1991 | ||
TABLE 4: TOTAL POPULATION OF THE FOUNTAIN (3) | 1282 | 668 | 467 | -63.6% | |
as a % age of the total 1971 population | 100 | 52.11 |
36.43 | ||
Total Roman Catholic | 203 | 75 | 64 | -68.5% | |
Total Presbyterians | 492 | 183 | 130 | -73.6% | |
Total Church of Ireland | 562 | 294 | 144 | -74.4% | |
Total Methodist | 71 | 30 | 16 | -77.5% | |
Total Other | 108 | 96 | 83 | -23.1% |
What emerges from the examination of the Fountain small area statistics is the severity of the population decline whilst the religious balance of the population - predominantly Protestant - remains virtually unaltered. Our preliminary inquiries indicate that a variety of factors appear to be involved in this depopulation: redevelopment; the housing market; a particular form of housing blight; and sectarian issues including violence and intimidation. What is clear is that the Fountain is a community which requires urgent and special support, if it is to survive culturally and socially. This means that special arrangement may need to be made to recognise the plight of this community, which has been uniquely affected by a combination of factors. To fail to recognise the special situation of the Fountain and to fail to take the steps required to support the community is to contribute by default to the processes of increased segregation and neglect which are endangering the viability of the Fountain as a community. The Fountain, as an enclave community, has special needs. The needs of enclave communities deserve special recognition within the Area Plan, on a par with the attention paid to rural village communities.
3b The population figures and religious breakdown for
Gobnascale were examined using the same definition and method
of extracting the data. Whilst the total Catholic population in
the area has fluctuated slightly, there has been a dramatic decline
in all other denominations, including a decline in the category
"Other, None and Not Stated." The marked trend towards
increased segregation is evident. This trend is symptomatic of
a wider trend towards an increase in internal segregation in
two communities, which we suggest may be indicative of a wider
trend towards increased segregation.
Table 5: TOTAL POPULATION OF GOBNASCALE (4) | 1781 | 1741 | 1312 | |
Total Roman Catholic | 1098 | 1246 | 1190 | +8.4 |
Total Presbyterians | 200 | 21 | 5 | -97.5 |
Total Church of Ireland | 156 | 13 | 0 | -100 |
Total Methodist | 41 | 0 | 0 | -100 |
Total Other, None & Not Stated | 268 | 461 | 117 | -56.3 |
All of these trends towards increased segregation have implications
for planning and housing policy. Murtagh (1994)(5) suggests that
segregation is not necessarily a bad thing, and segregation performs
certain functions for the enclave (and indeed the integrated)
community. From the preliminary work on the project, it is clear
that segregated communities have strong views about segregation
and about the quality of their lives within such communities.
At this stage, it is not possible to be more definitive about
these views or their possible policy implications. Templegrove
would welcome the opportunity to provide further information
on this aspect of our work when we have collected and analysed
more data.
CAIN
contains information and source material on the conflict
and politics in Northern Ireland. CAIN is based within Ulster University. |
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