Full details (ie both the original address of the evacuee and his destination) were available for 353 movements in and out of these areas. They break down like this.

The most noticeable features of the inter-area movements are

1. The heavy concentration of movement in the north, north-west and west of the city (70% of total outward movement and 71% of the total inward movements). These areas continue to bear the brunt of the residential displacement. In 1969 89% of the displaced families came from these areas.

2. It is hardly surprising that the number of Belfast people leaving the city considerably exceeds the number of outsiders who came in.

3. Further breakdown shows that 145 families (41%) moved to another address within the same area of the city. This phenomenon was even more marked if North Belfast, North-west Belfast and West Belfast are regarded as an entity. 172 (49%) of all the movements were from one address in this area to another.

North and North-west

Although North and North-west are two distinct areas which experienced different types of housing movement, we have decided to discuss them as a unit. The reason is that the regions adjoining the Oldpark Road form an obvious unit, but the Oldpark Road is the boundary between North and North-west. The major movements in the larger area took place in Rathcoole and Oldpark.

There are 35 fully detailed moves from Rathcoole (Zone 812) almost all Catholics. In fact we have details about further moves whose destinations are not known. Many of these families are now squatting in West Belfast, especially in Twinbrook estate. In contrast, the Emergency Housing List shows virtually no movements into Rathcoole, although almost all the abandoned houses in the estate were quickly occupied by squatters, many of them from Oldpark and Ardoyne and almost all Protestant.

A total of 74 families moved from the three zones (212, 213 and 261) alongside the Oldpark Road, 65% of these were Protestants, and they mainly dispersed to Rathcoole and the Ballysillan estates. Three zones (212, 213 and 261) cover the parts of the Oldpark Road in which most movement took place.

Ten families, all of them Protestant, moved into the Ballygomartin area. The other noticeable factor about the Oldpark movements is that there was considerable redistribution of families within the area: in particular, many Catholic families in the predominantly Protestant lower Oldpark moved up the road into the predominantly Catholic Bone area.

Ardoyne, which suffered most in the post-internment movements in 1971, remained relatively stable with only 18 families leaving the area.

West

Almost twice as many families moved into West Belfast as moved out of it (122 as opposed to 70). The greatest concentrations (53%) of these movements were Andersonstown (zone 831), Dunmurry (zone 824) and Suffolk (zone 833). No less than 94% of these movements were Catholic.

The only areas in West Belfast which experienced much out-movement were the middle Springfield Road (zones 332/333) and Suffolk (zone 833). The former followed an outbreak of intimidation against Catholics in the Clovelly St area which resulted in considerable movement. The movements from Suffolk was mainly a Protestant evacuation of lower Lenadoon, following considerable gunfire in the area and the events which accompanied the ending of the Provisional IRA truce.

South

South Belfast, which contains large concentrations of privately-owned houses, experienced comparatively little disturbance, although the six months subsequent to the period examined in this chapter has seen an escalation of intimidation into various neighbourhood pockets of south Belfast.

East

20% of the families who left their homes in the period under study had lived in East Belfast. The movements were rather different from those observed in August 1971. Then there had been flash-points at Ballybeen and in the lower Newtownards Road. This year however the exodus was much more widely spread and included the departure of mainly Catholic families from almost every area east of the River - Cregagh, Castlereagh, Tullycarnet, Willowfield and Dundonald.

These families almost invariably settled in strongly Catholic areas. Thus many of the squatters in Twinbrook were Catholics from East Belfast. Willowfield, which contains small Catholic enclave in East Belfast, provided a settling-place for 17 families. Almost all of these families were from scattered locations in East Belfast, and all of them were Catholics mostly seeking (temporary) refuge before moving to 'safe' areas in other parts of Belfast. The other flash-point area in East Belfast during this period was the Short Strand district (zone 611). 26 families in this zone left their homes in the period, and 17 moved into the area, mostly from scattered locations in East Belfast. Most of the out- movements followed the Anderson Street bomb on May 27th, and the movements into the area all came from East Belfast, many of them bomb victims who moved to new addresses close to their old homes.

DISCUSSION AND TESTING OF HYPOTHESES

At a first glance there are similarities between the pattern of movement this year and those which emerged from earlier studies. For example, the concentration of movement in North and West Belfast is a familiar pattern from 1969 and 1971. On the other hand, many of the areas which were severely affected in August 1971 were relatively stable this year -including the New Lodge Road, Ardoyne, Grosvenor Road, and Bryson Street! Madrid Street.

The reason for this may well be that these 1971 conflict areas had, as a result of the conflict, become more distinctly segregated by the removal of a mixed-religion buffer zone between them. It is observable that the other areas identified in 'Flight' (the 1971 Research paper), especially Suffolk and Oldpark, experienced a lot of unrest because the territorial argument has not been settled yet; both had mixed religions in the areas between the two segregated antagonists. The events of 1972 have removed this buffer zone in Suffolk, although the Oldpark picture is still volatile. Thus the movements of the 13-week period have increased the number of face-to-face areas in the city. It also appears that, both in August 1971 and in the period covered by our study there were no violent confrontations in areas where exclusively Catholic areas faced exclusively Protestant areas.

The existence of mixed-religious zones account for almost all the major flash-points (Oldpark, Suffolk, Rathcoole).

Two other factors which appear to have gathered importance in provoking residential instability are the number of squatters and the increased organisation of evacuations. As regards the first of these factors, it is not an exaggeration to claim that squatting has become the most direct way of acquiring a new house - more than 3,000 families are currently squatting in Housing Executive property. The attraction of a rent-free property with reasonable short-time security of tenure - very few evictions have taken place - has greatly increased residential mobility in the city. One of the effects of this situation is that many families which are genuine cases of hardship have found that application for emergency housing status is unsuccessful. In the circumstances the most effective way of securing accommodation is to squat.

The second factor is one which has been noticed before, but only on an ad hoc basis. Since 1971, however, there is considerable evidence that organised groups, including the IRA Provisionals and the UDA, have on various occasions encouraged intimidation for tactical reasons. A senior police officer informed us "I don't know about a strategy, but there are definite tactical moves"(8). Increasingly the population patterns in Belfast are regarded in a territorial way - the Provisional IRA pressure in Suffolk and the UDA pressure in Rathcoole appear to have been aimed at producing areas which are more easily controlled by the organisations. There is, we believe, urgent need of more research into this disturbing trend.

Our main findings regarding the movement patterns of Catholics and Protestants confirm the continuation of the trends described in 'Flight'. "Protestants are tending to move out to the newer housing areas on the city's margins and Catholics are crowding into the Falls / Andersonstown sector of the city and the older housing in North Belfast" ^[9]. The patterns were largely repeated, the Protestants who evacuated Suffolk and the Oldpark area mainly found new homes in Rathcoole, the Ballysillan estates and Ballygomartin. Many of these Protestants moved into dispersed locations throughout East Belfast.

The major movements have been different in type. All the predominantly Catholic areas of the city experienced an influx of families, both from predominantly Protestant areas like East Belfast and from disputed estates like Rathcoole. Often these families sought security in the nearest Catholic area. There was a large flow into Andersonstown in West Belfast and in the North the Oldpark area attracted Catholic refugees; even the small Catholic Willowfield district in East Belfast had its intake. Following on similar movements in 1969 and 1971, this resulted in considerable overcrowding in the Catholic areas. The explosion of these areas was almost inevitable, as when the Catholic Bone area in the Oldpark Road expanded across into the Ballybone. There appears to be little doubt that the disturbances In Lenadoon (Suffolk) were at least partly caused by the same process. The Catholic incursions into Twinbrook certainly took place because that part of the western reaches of Belfast was seen to fall inside a Catholic expansion area -thus offering future security to its new squatters.

The graph representing the weekly numbers of families who moved from their home as a result of intimidation confirms the pattern in which many people intuitively believed. There was a gradual increase in the number of movements beginning in early May and coming to a peak during the 'Twelfth week'. Thereafter an easing-off takes place. We were unable, however, on the other evidence we collected to make any definite statements about whether or not there is an annual pattern of intimidation apart from the annual increase from Spring to early July - another useful area for further research.

One reason for testing this hypothesis was to discover whether or not families with large numbers of children were among the first to leave what they regarded as dangerous areas. Our figures however do not confirm this. 69% of the families which moved had four or less numbers, including the parents, and families with more than 8 members comprised only 2% of the total. From empirical evidence gathered for the rest of this study, we believe that the low percentage figure of large families is even more disturbing. It is not because large families suffer less intimidation, but because they are the most reluctant to move as a result of it. The difficulties facing a large family which has been intimidated - not least the difficulty of finding suitable accommodation for all the children -are immeasurably greater than for those with small families and often are powerful enough to override the real physical fear of remaining. As a result, large families are often the last to leave. It is difficult to overestimate the social consequences for large families of being forcibly imprisoned in the most dangerous areas of all, with both the physical and mental danger to the children. This state of affairs deserves the special consideration of the Relief Agencies.

FOOTNOTES