Report

We first examined the population figures by religion for the entire city area, using a grid square which is approximately bounded by Termon House on the Letterkenny Road in the South West, Drumahoe Bridge in the South East, Thornhill College in the North East and the Sewage Works at Elagh Road in the North West. We extracted total population figures from the 1971, 1981 and 1991 census of population, and a breakdown by religion for each year. (As is widely known, the figures for 1981 are not entirely reliable due to difficulties with the return rate in that census.)

TABLE 1: POPULATION OF DERRY/LONDONDERRY BY RELIGION FROM THE 1971,1981& 1991 CENSUS OF POPULATION FOR NI USING GRID REFERENCES C410150 - C464212

An examination of the figures for the urban area of the city shows a change in the ratio of Protestants to Catholics in the city, a substantial decline in the overall total Protestant population in the city as a whole.(See Table 1)

This trend is mirrored in similar trends in the city of Belfast, where a similar exodus of the Protestant population to the North Down and Ards area has been documented. It is likely that the causes of such shifts are complex and composed of a number of interacting factors. Nonetheless, the trend is one which gives concern to social scientists, politicians and policy makers in a range of fields. It raises questions about the desirability of increased segregation and the kinds of balance we wish to achieve, particularly in urban environments where the greatest amounts of violence has been experienced. This raises the wider issue of the role of planners in social engineering, which is beyond the remit of this submission. The activities of planners and policy makers has impacted, whether intentionally or unintentionally, on factors such as the sectarian balance. Further, we know that policy in certain fields such as housing, play a significant role in shaping the sectarian geography of our cities and towns. We submit that the Area Plan is an opportunity to begin to disentangle some of these factors and explore the role planners can and should play.

2. The second examination of the statistics was aimed at establishing internal migration within the urban area. For this purpose, an examination of the small area statistics using grid squares was conducted. A patchwork of grid squares which approximated the Waterside and Cityside areas was constructed, and the total population figures, again broken down by religion, were examined. Table 3 shows the Waterside figures, and Table 4 shows the figures for the Cityside.

TABLE 2: WATERSIDE (1): TOTAL POPULATION BY RELIGION

The Waterside Catholic population figures for 1981 as with other figures for that year, (particularly for the Catholic population) are not reliable. Nonetheless, there has been a small increase in the Catholic population in the Waterside, from 7708 in 1971 to 8032 in 1991: an increase of 324. The increase in the Waterside Protestant population is somewhat larger: from 7849 in 1971 to 9935 in 1991: an increase of 1903.

An examination of the figures for the Cityside (Table 3) shows that there has also been an increase in the Catholic population in the Cityside, from 33951 in 1971 to 48233 in 1991, an increase of 14282. The Protestant population, on the other hand, has decreased from 8459 in 1971 to 1407 in 1991, a decrease of 7052. This decrease of 7052 is not offset by the increase of 1903 in the Waterside Protestant population. The overall trend in population movement is of Protestant movement out of the city area completely.

TABLE 3: CITYSIDE(2): TOTAL POPULATION BY RELIGION

Table 1 suggests that the decline in the Protestant population for the city as a whole is 4983 over the twenty year period. Tables 2 and 3, which use different land boundaries, suggest that the overall decline in Protestant population in the Cityside of 7052 is somewhat offset by an increase in the Waterside Protestant population of 1903, giving an overall decline of 5149 for the city as a whole . It seems reasonable to conclude, therefore, that the city population of Protestants has declined by at least 5000 people.

However, this figure may be an underestimation. It has been argued that the majority of those who respond "none" to the religion question on the census are, in fact, Protestant. Bearing this in mind, we should note-, according to Table 1 - an overall decline in this category in the overall city population of 4198. There has been an equivalent increase of 384 in the Waterside "none, other and not stated"population in the twenty year period, giving some credence to the view that these people are, in fact, Protestant. A corresponding decline in the same population in the Cityside (see Table 3) of 2896 would tend to confirm this view. This means that the overall decrease citywide in this category is 2512 people. Potentially, therefore, the population loss of Protestants to the city is 5149 plus some of this number: a maximum potential loss of 7661, although it is unlikely that all of the 2512 "none other and not stated" category are Protestants.

What is evident from an examination of the Cityside and Waterside figures is an internal shift of Protestants from the west to the east banks of the city, in the context of an overall decline in the Protestant population of the city of between five to six and a half thousand people.

Some of these changes in population balance are not due to migration, but to natural increases in the population. Migration occurs for a variety of reasons, and sometimes a combination of several reasons: upward mobility; acquisition of better housing; employment; decline of the area due to vandalism, redevelopment, as well as fear, intimidation and sectarian issues.

3.We looked at the Fountain and Gobnascale as examples of enclave communities. We examined small area statistics for two communities within the city.

3a. The geographic definition of the Fountain community proved problematic, in that the community boundaries have contracted with the decline in population. We used contemporary boundaries as defined by current residents, and the figures here are the nearest grid square data within those boundaries

What emerges from the examination of the Fountain small area statistics is the severity of the population decline whilst the religious balance of the population - predominantly Protestant - remains virtually unaltered. Our preliminary inquiries indicate that a variety of factors appear to be involved in this depopulation: redevelopment; the housing market; a particular form of housing blight; and sectarian issues including violence and intimidation. What is clear is that the Fountain is a community which requires urgent and special support, if it is to survive culturally and socially. This means that special arrangement may need to be made to recognise the plight of this community, which has been uniquely affected by a combination of factors. To fail to recognise the special situation of the Fountain and to fail to take the steps required to support the community is to contribute by default to the processes of increased segregation and neglect which are endangering the viability of the Fountain as a community. The Fountain, as an enclave community, has special needs. The needs of enclave communities deserve special recognition within the Area Plan, on a par with the attention paid to rural village communities.

3b The population figures and religious breakdown for Gobnascale were examined using the same definition and method of extracting the data. Whilst the total Catholic population in the area has fluctuated slightly, there has been a dramatic decline in all other denominations, including a decline in the category "Other, None and Not Stated." The marked trend towards increased segregation is evident. This trend is symptomatic of a wider trend towards an increase in internal segregation in two communities, which we suggest may be indicative of a wider trend towards increased segregation.

All of these trends towards increased segregation have implications for planning and housing policy. Murtagh (1994)(5) suggests that segregation is not necessarily a bad thing, and segregation performs certain functions for the enclave (and indeed the integrated) community. From the preliminary work on the project, it is clear that segregated communities have strong views about segregation and about the quality of their lives within such communities. At this stage, it is not possible to be more definitive about these views or their possible policy implications. Templegrove would welcome the opportunity to provide further information on this aspect of our work when we have collected and analysed more data.